Israel’s deterrent:For decades, Israel has refused to confirm or deny that it has nuclear weapons, sticking to a statement that it “will not be the first to introduce” nukes to the Middle East - a meaningless statement, as NATO nukes have been in Turkey for years. However, every analyst in the world, and every government in the world, assumes that Israel has 200-400 nuclear weapons, including thermonuclear (hydrogen) and possibly neutron weapons. For delivering them, Israel has aircraft bombs, Jericho II missiles (similar to the US Pershing, range to 1200km), and possibly an ICBM version of the
Shavit space launch vehicle, with a possible range of 7,000 km with a 300kg nuclear warhead. These are all land-based, and thus vulnerable to missile attack; so, like other nuclear weapon states, Israel has openly sought to build a submarine-based nuclear “deterrent”. Not only Iran but also Pakistan are possible targets: Israel is worried that if the pro-Western, secular military dictatorship in Pakistan falls to a more “fundamentalist” regime, it may “need” submarine missiles of 1500km range to threaten Pakistans nuclear facilities.Proliferation: Various international treaties and national laws restrict trade to countries that have built nuclear weapons. For example, the US “don’t ask” policy is essential because, if it accepted the truth, US legislation should mandate the termination of military aid to Israel (the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978, section 669 of the Foreign Assistance Act- the 1976 Symington amendment - and the 1985 Solarz amendment). Oddly, although the official line is that the US does not ask about an Israeli bomb, the US government declared Israel to be a nuclear proliferator in 1997, when the Dimona nuclear complex and Ben Gurion university were added to a
Export Administration Regulation list of ‘entities’ banned from US trade because they engage in nuclear proliferation - a position they share with A.Q. Kahn’s infamous Pakistani institute.France, Britain, Norway and South Africa are known to have secretly helped Isreal’s weapons program, as is well documented elsewhere. (British officials gave Israel
plutonium and heavy water for its bomb without informing ministers). Germany built and gave Israel submarines which Israel hints are launch platforms for nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and has agreed to build two more. The USA supplied nuclear-capable Harpoon missles for the submarines, and possibly is providing basing for them in the Indian Ocean.
Germany knowingly proliferating WMD?Although Israel’s nukes are common knowledge, it is not widely known that Israel has three Dolphin submarines, some based in the Indian Ocean, that carry nuclear-capable missiles with a reported range of 1500km (900miles). Germany built the three submarines, despite widespread public statements that Israel would arm them with nuclear weapons - and paid the bill. German taxpayers paid $800 million of the $1 billion bill, paying for two and a half of the three submarines.
Because delivery systems for nuclear weapons are restricted by counterproliferation treaties and laws, it seems clear that Germany knowingly engaged in nuclear proliferation. And because the submarines did sea trials in Norway in 1999 - under German flag - it is possible that the Norwegians also were aware of the submarines capability (ref 2). Furthermore, German law about any weapons export is very strict, with arms-trade forbidden to countries with: poor human rights records, to countries at war, to countries which have not comitted to nuclear non-proliferation treaties and of weapons that might add to regional tensions. It would seem the Dolphins fail all of these tests laid out in
EU Code of Conduct for Arms Exports, but there has been very little debate about this in Germany.
The following timeline is gathered from several sources listed below. It shows that for many years there were clear public indications that Israel intended to put nukes on these submarines. Note also the contract timing: Israel thought about the project for years, ordered submarines in mid 1989, cancelled the contract fifteen months later, just after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but revived it two months later when German Chancellor Kohl agreed to pick up the bill.
Early 1980s Israel started seeking replacement for its old Gal submarines.
Aug 1989 Contract for three? submarines signed by Rabin (ref 2) at $340 million each. Reports suggest the subs will be built in Germany by German companies under a US main contractor, to allow the use of US government Foreign Military Sales funds (ref 3). The USA has no expertise in building diesel-electric submarines, and FMS funds are meant to be spent in the USA.
August 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait,
Oct 1990 US has large numbers of troops in Saudi Arabia, it is reported that Israel is under pressure to NOT retaliate should Saddam attack it with Scud missiles.
Nov 1990 Nov 30 Israel cancels contract for three submarines, as “too expensive” (according to Dolphin website
project page)
Dec 1990 Former head of navy Botzer, tells Israeli TV that subs are strategic deterrent weapons, not ordinary naval weapons for sinking ships. (Ref 4)
Jan 17 1991 Gulf War starts, Iraqi scuds land in Israel, gas masks issued to civilians amid chemical weapon fears. Israel does not respond.
Jan 30 1991 Two weeks after Gulf War, and two months after Israel cancelled their order, Chancellor Kohl agrees to build and pay for the construction first two submarines. (Estimated cost $640m). Sale said to be an apology for discovery that German companies sold Saddam weapons in 1980s.
1993 Israeli intelligence estimates Iran will have nuclear-armed missiles by 2000
1994 April, contract changes to include the third submarine, half paid for by Israel, half Germany.
1998 Israeli intelligence estimates Iran will have nuclear-armed missiles by 2003-2005 and already has four ex-Soviet nukes. (ref 4)
1998 Washington Times
reports the subs are for nuclear weapons, citing Israeli intelligence and political sources (ref 4)
1999 First submarine handed over by Germany
2000 Second and third submarine commissioned
2000 Israeli intelligence estimates Iran will have nuclear-armed missiles by 2002
2000 June: Israeli submarine tests nuclear-capable cruise missile with 1500km range in the Indian Ocean, reports the Sunday Times. Possibly a variant Popeye missile.
2005 The
semi-official Dolphin submarine website notes that “while the subs are likely more important as a nuclear deterrent to land-based attacks, the Dolphin submarines offers Israel superior naval capabilities to its neighbors, as well“
2005 November on its last day in office, the outgoing government agreed in principle to sell another two Dolphins to Israel, and contract negotiations are ongoing. It is
reported that Germany agreed to pay up to 333 million Euros of an estimated 1000 million cost - which would bring the German “donation” total to over $1000 million. The new subs are expected to be delivered in about 2012, and will use fuel cells instead of diesel-electric propulsion.
Basing and operationsThe subs reportedly patrol in the Indian Ocean. Their endurance is reportedly 30 days, with a cruising range of 4,500 nautical miles, which makes it impossible to commute 20,000 miles from Haifa, round Africa to the Indian Ocean. So does Egypt let them through the Suez canal, or are they based in the Indian Ocean? There are no known submarine pens at Eilat, Israel’s only port with access to the Indian Ocean. It was
reported by Arab sources in 2001 that Israel was seeking to use Russia’s old sub base in Eritrea, but it appears that was refused. The US/UK base at Diego Garcia is another possibility; it is reported Dolphins have visited to pick up Harpoon missiles, but basing facilities there would be diplomatically difficult. Other, more secret locations have been suggested, but no information is published.
Non standard torpedo tubes for cruise missiles?The submarine has the capacity to carry up to 16 surface-to-surface missiles or torpedoes. Israel says it is acknowledged armed with the submarine-version of the US Harpoon missile, which has a range of about 130km with a payload of 227kg - enough for a nuclear weapon - and which fits a standard torpedo tube.
Four of the ten topedo tubes are reportedly larger than almost-universal 533mm tube size: with a 650mm diameter, this was just one expensive change that Israel wanted to the standard submarine design. (apparently confirmed by torpedo room photo above, from
israeli-weapons.com) Officially, it is suggested the extra 12cm could provide the capability of launching swimmer delivery vehicles (SDVs), while with liners the tubes could be narrowed down for torpedoes. However,
SDVs are traditionally mounted externally, on the decks of submarines when needed, and are
much larger than 650mm diameter, which is little more than the width of an operators shoulders. The submarines also have large dive chambers for deploying swimmers and their equipment, casting doubt on the SDV story.
What cruise missile was tested in 2000 is a mystery. As the major targets for an Israeli nuclear “deterrent” are far inland in Iran and Pakistan, the US-supplied Harpoon missiles would not have the necessary range - at least 1000km. Several analysts suggest the special extra-wide tubes are to accommodate Israeli-designed Popeye long-range cruise missiles, about which little is published. Ironically, Israeli cooperation with Iran on a seabased cruise missile was reported to the Rumsfeld Commission on missile threats, but such research was decades ago in the Shah’s time (ref 7). Apart from the US and Russia, Pakistan is the only country with an acknowledged and tested medium range cruise missile - it has been hinted that the surprisingly advanced Babur was possibly copied from some US ones which crashed in Pakistan - which can also be launched by Pakistan’s submarines.
The Soviet Union built a few submarines with wider tubes of the same 650mm size - used for some topedos and the sub-version of the
SS-N-21 Sampson nuclear cruise missile, which was reportedly deployed on the Akula, Victor III, Yankee Notch, and Sierra class SSN submarines. The SSC-4 coastal defense variant was carried in a 650-mm diameter canister, had a 200 kiloton yield and a CEP of 45 metres at 3000km range, although other versions
other versions might fit in narrower tubes.
References:1
http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/dolphin/2
The semi-official Dolphin website http://www.dolphin.org.il/dolphins/3
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/sub/index.html4
Israel buying 3 Submarines to carry nuclear missiles Washington Times July 1 1998
5.
Israel has sub-based nuclear arms capability Walter Pincus Washington Post June 15, 2002; Page A01
6.
Israel Expands its Nuclear Threat Thanks to German “donation” of Dolphin subs” Robert Stauffer in Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs, Dec 2003
7. see Appendix 3, unclassified working papers
Israeli ballistic Missile Developments footnote 33 W. Seth Carus, Cruise Missile Proliferation in the 1990s (Westport,Connecticut: Praeger, 1992), pp. 148-149.
8. ibid, footnote 24
9.
Germany may Sell 2 More Dolphin Subs to Israel for $1.17 billion, Defense Industry daily23 Nov 2005
Other Press links from the Dolphin site:
Ha’aretz
Navy eyes 2 new Dolphin submarinesDaily Times - Pakistan
Israel seeks more submarines for strategic depthLos Angeles Times
Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear DisputeFAS - Federation of American Scientists
Israel Special Weapons Guide - SubmarinesPopeye Turbo Cruise MissileWashington Post
Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability The Guardian
Israel to get subs with nuclear abilityHa’aretz
Swimming with the DolphinsAl Ahram
German subs for IsraelJane’s IDR
First Dolphins move in on Israeli navyGlobal Intelligence
Israel Moves – Quickly – To Beef Up Its Submarine ForceThe Sunday Times
Israel makes nuclear waves with submarine missile testPortsmouth Herald
German-built submarine ushers in new era for Israeli navy Monitor
Israel’s covert nuclear program World Tribune
Israel’s new sub fleet upsets Arab neighborsME Intelligence Bulletin
Israel Acquires First Nuclear-Capable SubWorld Tribune
Suddenly, Israel has a potent navyThe Washington Times
Israel buying 3 submarines to carry nuclear missilesAnalisi Difesa
Nuclear Missiles for the Israeli Submarines? -->
2 Responses to “Israel’s nuclear weapons submarines: Germany builds two more Dolphins”
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Don’t Bomb Iran » Iran as bad as Nazis: Merkel, German Chancellor - UK Sunday Times February 4th, 2007 at 9:38 am[...] Merkel speaks of the need to confront Iran, saying failure to do would would be like the failure to confront the Nazis in the 1930s. Israel’s nuclear-missile submarine (click here) were built and donated by Germany. [...]
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Don’t Bomb Iran » Israel’s nuclear missile subs 20% the price of Blair’s Trident proposal March 12th, 2007 at 3:48 am[...] The Israeli subs are fitted with special oversize torpedo tubes, and can fire long-range cruise missiles, which defence analysts believe are fitted with nuclear warheads. For more on the Israel’s Dolphin submarines, see Israel’s nuclear weapons submarines: Germany builds two more Dolphins [...]
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